For the 3rd day in a row, solar activity remains low. No large sunspots are facing Earth, and NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 10% chance of X-class solar flares. Isn’t this supposed to be Solar Max? Yes, but even during Solar Max, the sun sometimes takes a few days off. Activity should resume later this week

Remember, Groundhog Day? Today’s forecast feels a little like that movie. Once again, AR3889 is threatening to produce an X-class solar flare without actually producing one. The sunspot has an unstable ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that could explode at any moment. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of X-flares on Nov. 14th.

Today, a stream of solar wind is grazing Earth’s magnetic field. It’s not a fast-moving stream, but it is affecting our planet. Note the red-boxed region in this graph of solar wind data from NASA’s ACE spacecraft:

The red box highlights south-pointing magnetic fields in the solar wind stream. These south-pointing fields are partially canceling our planet’s north-pointing magnetic field. Resulting weak points (sometimes called “magnetic cracks”) allow solar wind to enter Earth’s magnetosphere, fueling geomagnetic unrest and Arctic auroras.

For the fifth day in a row, sunspot AR3889 poses a threat for strong Earth-directed solar flares. The sunspot’s delta-class magnetic field is unstable and harbors energy for significant explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of X-flares on Nov. 12th